CoinSkeptic
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← The Evidence

FAILED Nov 7, 2026

Should you buy double on DCA when Bitcoin crashes?

Short answer: No. Not by saving up for it. Keeping $25 a week back to buy double in deep falls was ahead in only 34% of four-year runs and 0% of ten-year runs: the waiting cash missed Bitcoin's rises.

What we tested: Buy double when Bitcoin is 50%+ below its record, or the same amount every week? Both plans set aside $100 a week; the double plan buys $75 in normal weeks and saves $25, then spends $100 plus up to $100 of the savings in deep-fall weeks. Every start week since 2011, 1% cost on each buy and the sale

What counted as a pass (decided before we looked): The double plan had to end ahead in 60% or more of start weeks, with a median gain of 3% or more, after 4, 6, 8 and 10 years, and also in runs starting 2011-2016 and from 2017 on
Result: Saving cash for crashes ended behind steady buying in most runs: ahead in only 34% of 588 four-year runs (a median 2.6% less), 36% of 484 six-year runs (3.7% less), 17% of 380 eight-year runs (4.6% less) and 0% of 276 ten-year runs (6.3% less). Runs starting from 2017 were ahead more often (65%, 85% and 65% at 4, 6 and 8 years), but only by 0.8-1.4% at the median. Runs starting 2011-2016 were never ahead (6.3-6.6% less): the saved cash missed Bitcoin's big rises. Extra money added during deep falls (not saved up: $50 a normal week, $100 a deep-fall week) did better per dollar: a median 8-10% more over 4-10 years

What it means for you

Buying plans and portfolios: what this family of tests supports, in plain moves. Information only, not financial advice.

Coins in this test

Live price, trend check and how every tested rule did on that coin alone.

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