CoinSkeptic
1,900+ crypto ideas tested · 305 coins tracked · 11+ years of prices · every result shown, pass or fail
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← The Evidence

FAILED Nov 7, 2026

Do past crypto winners keep winning?

Short answer: No. Coins whose weekly buying did best over the past year ended ahead over the next 2 years in only 21% of cases, vs 25% for the worst ones. Only 7% beat Bitcoin.

What we tested: Do coins with a strong past keep winning for long-term buyers? Every coin Coinbase has listed, dead ones included, with a year of prices and $500k+ a day of trading, at 20 start dates from 2020 to 2024: the third whose weekly buying did best over the past year vs the worst third, then buying weekly for the next 2 years, 1% cost each way

What counted as a pass (decided before we looked): The best third had to end ahead in at least 10 more cases out of every 100 than the worst third, with a better middle result, beat Bitcoin more often, pass a luck check (fewer than 5% of random shuffles as good), and do the same for start dates in 2020-2022 and in 2023-2024. To be called 'likely gains' it also had to end ahead in 50% or more
Result: The past year's best third did no better: it ended ahead in 21% of 272 cases vs 25% for the worst third, with a middle result of $67 vs $70 per $100 put in, and beat Bitcoin 7% vs 8% of the time; 90.5% of random shuffles did as well. It went the wrong way in 2020-2022 (32% vs 39%) and in 2023-2024 (15% vs 18%). Across all 834 cases most coins ended behind over the next 2 years: only 21-34% of each third ended ahead and 7-10% beat Bitcoin

What it means for you

Buying plans and portfolios: what this family of tests supports, in plain moves. Information only, not financial advice.

Coins in this test

Live price, trend check and how every tested rule did on that coin alone.

BTC Bitcoin

Related tests

FAILEDNov 7, 2026
Should you put each week's money into the coin that looks cheapest? Every coin Coinbase has listed, dead ones included, with a year of prices and $500k+ a day of trading: 1,900 random groups of 7 coins at 19 start dates from 2020 to 2024. Each week's $1 went into the coin lowest between its support and resistance, furthest below its record and its 200-day average and after the biggest 30-day fall, or into the opposite coin, instead of being split evenly; 104 weeks of buying, 1% cost each way
No. Putting each week's money into the coin that looked cheapest ended with more money than an even split in only 45% of 1,900 groups, worse than picking at random (49%). Full result →
FAILEDNov 7, 2026
Buy double when Bitcoin is 50%+ below its record, or the same amount every week? Both plans set aside $100 a week; the double plan buys $75 in normal weeks and saves $25, then spends $100 plus up to $100 of the savings in deep-fall weeks. Every start week since 2011, 1% cost on each buy and the sale
Not by saving up for it. Keeping $25 a week back to buy double in deep falls was ahead in only 34% of four-year runs and 0% of ten-year runs: the waiting cash missed Bitcoin's rises. Full result →
MIXEDOct 27, 2026
Daily vs weekly vs monthly buying (the same $5,200 a year)
It barely matters on the big coins. Daily beat monthly by 3.9% across all coins, but on the four test coins it lost on 3 of 4 over all history. Full result →
MIXEDOct 27, 2026
Lump sum vs $100 a week ($5,200 a year, value after 365 days)
It depends on the coin. Buying $100 a week beat a lump sum on 76% of start dates across all coins (most kept falling), but on Bitcoin and Ether a lump sum usually won. Full result →
MIXEDOct 29, 2026
All coins: $100 a week only in the BUY ZONE vs every week
Mixed. Buying $100 a week only in the BUY ZONE helped on smaller coins but not on the biggest ones ($500M+, $1B+), and with more coins added it mostly failed. Full result →

All 11 tests on DCA and buying plans →

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Tested on past prices with no fees unless stated; the past is no promise. Information only, not financial advice. Every other test →